Monday, June 22, 2020

Good Articles I Read Recently

Morgan Housel on Things That Will Never Change- here.

Morgan Housel on why tail end events are all that matters- here.

Li Lu- on the practice of value investing, the role we play as capital allocators, and why speculation is a zero sum game- here.

Enjoy and Prosper (but keep your distance),
Yours One-Legged

Sunday, December 22, 2019

Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year

Well folks, we are closing in on another year.

I will be taking a short break for about 5 weeks.

Please have a safe and merry Xmas and a very Happy New Year!

Yours One-Legged

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Account Recovered!

Folks, sorry for the absence.

To cut a long story short, I lost my password to this account.

I have managed to somehow recover and reset the password.

So yes, we are back!

Stay tune for further posts.

Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Podcast with the Strawman and Book Reco

Podcast Link

I think it might be remiss of me not to mention this book:

Value Investing: Tools and Techniques for Intelligent Investment by [Montier, James]

Montier talks about the trinity of risks:

1. Valuation Risk
2. Earnings Risk
3. Balance Sheet Risk

Ultimately, the main idea is that risk is not a number, it is a notion/concept. Confusion sets in when we fail to separate price from value. I have harped on enough about this already. If it is not obvious now, it will never be.

Friday, May 11, 2018

Friday Musings

What is the market? Is it a thing or a process? Or both- much like particle/wave duality in physics?

This has something to do with market efficiency and edge.

I will try to fill in more later. Just bookmarking random thoughts.

Friday, May 4, 2018

Book Review: How Do You Know?

How Do You Know?: A Guide to Clear Thinking About Wall Street, Investing & Life by [Mayer, Christopher W.]

Link to Amazon

One of the four principles of value investing espoused by Li Lu (link here) is to understand and identify one's circle of competence. To do that, the first basic questions are likely to be What Do I Know? and How Do I Know?

This is where Chris Mayer's book comes in handy.

This is not a spoiler. The basic premise in Chris' book is that we don't really know much at all.

Realising that we don't really know much at all (actually being convinced and internalising this reality, instead of paying lip service to it) could actually be the dawn of real wisdom.

For me personally, this book has helped me reconcile conflicts and issues in respect of religions (short answer: degrees of belief, reasonably based) which is just a short hop away from issues in investments (short answer: degrees of conviction, reasonably based).

The need for a margin of safety in investments is brought into stark relief when one considers the vexed issue of cause and effect. A background knowledge and reading of Nicholas Taleb's books would assist the reader here.

I have previously caused some controversies in a previous book review. It is not my intention to cause offense again to honest and good work done by others. I do this in the spirit of intellectual inquiry for the betterment of all involved, and I hope my following comments will be interpreted as such.

The pitfalls of data mining and survivorship bias are clearly demonstrated in Chris Mayer's book (Chapter 2) where he wrote about subsequent studies on the "great" companies covered by the authors of bestsellers In Search of Excellence (Peters and Waterman) and Good to Great (Collins and Porras).

The efforts of the authors of Intelligent Fanatics should be read in conjunction with the above and also with this excellent article from the Scientific American published recently in March 2018. A very basic summary of some tentative scientific research shows that whilst talent is important, luck plays a large role in success.

Enjoy and Prosper,
Yours One-Legged

Sunday, April 22, 2018

Peter Kaufman's brilliantly instructive speech

Here is the link.

If you really want to learn, it helps to stand on the shoulders of giants. Please enjoy the view.

After you have finished, readers may want to have a go at formulating further models from Kaufman's three buckets, and if possible, a practical application for each model. You do not need to limit yourself to applications in the investing world.

Enjoy and prosper
Yours One Legged