Mulling over my activity over the last
7 days since my last blog post, I am reminded of John Arnold’s famous quote:
“War is sometimes described as long periods of
boredom punctuated by short moments of excitement. History is often similar, if
rather safer.”
I would tentatively venture that
investing is similar. After all, history
is a record of the endeavours of humankind. Business is but one small facet of
these endeavours. Logically, the same process should apply. My investing is characterised by a never-ending search for ideas, many of which are discarded. Looking back over my notes, good ideas that are investable are rare, about one every 3 months where I am concerned.
Here is a summary of what I have been
up to over the last 7 days, gleaned from my journal.
14
November 2012
Thinking about businesses with
longevity, a long compounding trajectory. Growth rates should be moderate, should
not be rapidly changing. Compounding
machines. Need to learn more about
financial history, especially businesses that have been around and unchanged
for a long time. Very few businesses can
stand the ravages of time and competition.
Banking and law are two examples. BHP is another. Needless to say, adaptability is crucial.
Continued going through list of
shares.
15
November 2012
ABS data shows MV vehicle sales for
Oct down 2.8% from Sept, and SUV down 3%. Data conflicts with FCAI figures
published at the start of the month.
Investigated cause for difference.
Continued going through list of
shares.
16
November 2012
Looking closely at CMI Ltd. TJM has a
good brand, but management is stuffing up via wrong business model. Electricals
facing some serious headwinds.
19
November 2012
Boom in shale gas- LNG transport-
shipping.
Finished treasure hunt project for
industrials.
20
November 2012
TGA results out- NCML continues to
drag- lesson= large acquisitions seldom work. Cashflow strong. Rentals steady.
Arrears/impairments down. Cashfirst and TEF looking promising. TEF being funded
entirely by debt. Market did not like
result. Dividend lifted. No long term reason to sell but unsure of whether to
add more.
FFI- catching up with news. Chairman's presentation and latest leasing deal are positive news as value is unlocked from the land parcel. Attempting to do a revised valuation.
FFI- catching up with news. Chairman's presentation and latest leasing deal are positive news as value is unlocked from the land parcel. Attempting to do a revised valuation.
21
November 2012
Considering the implications of the US
becoming energy independent, and the many projects in the pipeline for
LNG. A long tailwind. Thinking of
industries that will benefit from declining input costs of LNG. There are 4
obvious candidates on the ASX that my non-creative mind can think of.
LYL management gave an unusual downward guidance over next 2 years. Mining services slowing down rapidly. Hats off to a management with impeccable integrity.
Disclaimer: the content of this post is not to be relied on as financial advice. It contains my personal opinion only, plus facts that I cannot verify to be accurate. Do your own research and seek financial advice where appropriate. I have made many mistakes in the past, and will continue to do so in the future.
LYL management gave an unusual downward guidance over next 2 years. Mining services slowing down rapidly. Hats off to a management with impeccable integrity.
Disclaimer: the content of this post is not to be relied on as financial advice. It contains my personal opinion only, plus facts that I cannot verify to be accurate. Do your own research and seek financial advice where appropriate. I have made many mistakes in the past, and will continue to do so in the future.
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