The pace is definitely picking up this week.
18 August 2014
GBT- $14m in FCF. Results already well guided, but Mr Market appears surprised.
AZJ- underlying EBIT $851m. Still very little FCF flowing through. Debt increasing. Pass.
ABS figures show new car sales fell in July 2014.
DWS- revenue down, NPAT down, but very good cashflow at nearly $20m. Clean balance sheet with excess cash and working capital.
19 August 2014
BYL results out. $9.9m NPAT even though revenue down. Balance sheet in net cash. Dividend declared. Cashflow is a whopping $28m. Revenue next year at least 20% higher at $300m. ROE just under 20%. Book value 54 cents, increased 13%. Civil margins lower than mining margins- unexpected. 15% gross margins.
TPI results out- made a profit, announced dividend. But whole fleet grounded a day later due to safety concerns. Difficult to find any excess free cashflow.
SHL- revenue and NPAT up in low teens. Very low ROE despite high level of debt. Pass.
EAX results out. Flat with no growth but priced for growth. FCF slight improvement to $4.5m due to changes in working capital. Not looking good on other fronts.
TOL- flat revenues, increased NPAT due to cost cutting.
MND results out. Holding firm with huge load of work in hand. SP bobbing up and down in a range as Mr Market keeps his eye on the IO price and news on China.
MVF- now trading at $1.75, below IPO price of $1.85. IPO Mark II candidate.
20 August 2014
NWH- $1.1b revenue, NPAT $45m. 9c dividend. Work in hand $1b, forecast $1b revenue 2015, with $2.4b of tenders in progress. Cashflow over $120m, FCF $80m, spewing out cash as capex is reduced. ROE 12.5%. Book value is $1.22. Red Flag= PBT line decreased by half. Margins crunched. Share register of NWH resembles a playground for traders.
CCL HY results- FCF annualised to $200m. Owner’s earnings= $200m. EV $9b. Small volume growth in soft drinks, the same with USA, but margins being crunched. Watkins not articulating any clear strategy, in fact, I am not sure Watkins really knows what the core problem is.
ARP results flat. No growth but priced for growth. Pass.
MYT- FCF $257m. I need to learn more about the NZ electricity market.
TOX- sales and NPAT both up, $370m and $22m. FCF $23m. MC=$425m. Pass.
SEK results- FCF $230m. Pretty demanding implied growth CAGR embedded in SP. Pass.
SRX- NPAT $24m, FCF $24m before R & D- MC= $1.1b. CAGR required is now over 20% for 10 years. Pass.
UOS- terminated Myanmar venture. I breathed a sigh of relief.
21 August 2014
MGX results out. Cash kitty up to $520m. Dividend 4c. $60m of capex for Koolan Island coming up. Shine project delayed. With Chinese control, not sure whether shareholders' interest will be served. Pass for the moment.
IMF results out. Investments just under $100m, cash and receivables $180m, debts $50m, net=$130m. Optimistic valuation is $400m vis a vis MC of $350m. Not enough margin of safety. Character of IMF is changing, not the same IMF of old. Pass.
AZV results out. NPAT just under $4m, but everything is stuck in receivables. Cashflow anaemic at $577k and barely covered capex. Let's see what the next results look like. Pass.
NAN results out. Strong sales growth, turned profitable, annualised to $2m to $3m NPAT, but MC is $238m. Pass.
GLH- $1.4m of inflows but $1.1m of R & D capitalised. Revenue is up, but I am still not convinced this is worth $20m. Cash is up slightly to $1.1m. but cash boosted by annual license fees collected upfront, with close to $1m of this being unearned. Outlook growth is slowing to 10% for 2015. Quite a crowded space. Pass.
ARA- good cashflow $5m, strong balance sheet with no debt. $80m MC. Nothing on sell side. Just announced buyback. NTA 39 cents. $16m in excess cash. Very little HC noise. Worth a further look.
CMI results. Woeful tale continues, electrical down but still profitable at $11m PBT, but TJM losses increased, despite increase in aftermarket sales volume (decrease in OEM orders). Management and board revamp. Forecasting positive medium term outlook for Electricals and return to profitability for TJM in 2015. Declared 3 cents dividend. Pass.
CTE- partnership agreement with RGS. I wonder how much is CTE planning to spend on its stem cells development. Is this announcement a furphy designed to buoy the SP ahead of a disappointing FY report? Still cant find a new CEO?
MVP results out. Negative FCF. Remains a “potential” stock unless numbers start flowing.
IRE- $70m FCF- $1.4b MC. Pass.
BRG review- PBT $70m- MC $910m. Cashflow before tax also $70m. Clean easy accounts. 130m shares x $7= $910m MC. With NPAT and FCF at $50m, Current price implies 8% CAGR for 10 years. Chart target is $6= $780m MC?
PTM FUM increased from $16b to $22b. Keenly waiting for FPS.
AIO FY results out. OCF is $600m, but capex is $700m! EV value including debt is over $9.3b. NPAT is $257m.
22 August 2014
NEA results out. Clean balance sheet in net cash. Cashflow strong at $11m. Good tailwinds. Last half OCF is $7m versus $4m for previous half. Annualised without growth and stripping out R & D, OCF is now $11m, easily underpinning current SP of $150m. There is also cash of $23m on the balance sheet. Refining my understanding of NEA's business model. Hopefully I will put my thoughts in order for a meaningful post.
PME results out. Building up nicely. R & D of $5m exceeds OCF of $4m. CEO said pipeline is building up in the USA.
CAF NPAT turnaround. Cashflow going backwards, and negative after paying litigation claims. Pre claims OCF also decreased to $7m. $40m in working capital to be freed up due to mismatch of receivables and payables. Declared dividend. Balance sheet strong with $16m of cash plus franking and tax losses, balanced by provision for claims at $13m. Too hard basket.
JIN- results out. Australian profits are up slightly despite lower revenue, but some of the cash earned here is spent on overseas expansion with very little to show. Mexico=0, USA= 0, Germany=$8k revenue. Pass.
IFM results out. Improvement- price shot up another 10% to 97 cents. This is a 5.7 bagger forgone from days of 17 cents. Painful.
Riddle for the day: Who is going to win the growth race PME, NEA or RHT?
Hint: there is no correct answer, but bonus points will be given for correct questions.
Enjoy and Prosper,
Yours One Legged