Sunday, February 22, 2015

Reporting Season 1H15- Part 1

Okay folks. Reporting season is underway.

Just a few glossary terms:

CAGR= Compound Annual Growth Rate
EPS= Earnings per share
EV= Enterprise value (derived by adding debt on top of MC)
FCF= Free Cash Flow
MC= Market Capitalisation
OCF= Operating Cashflow
HY= Half Yearly Report

5 February 2015

REA HY out. Another great result, revenue up 25%, EPS up 34%. Flowing $128m OCF before tax, and $88m after tax. On track to hit $200m FCF per annum. MC over $6.6b implies CAGR of over 20% pa.

9 February 2015

COF HY. As expected, Geosciences still under pressure, but ID is doing fine. Mining services obviously still slow going, and government infrastructure spending has stalled.

IMF HY out. As expected, they spent $42m to get $35m net. The days of $1 for $3 are gone. Percentage of profit from claim value has gone done into single digits. The ROI profile for IMF is changing. Roughly $80m invested on which you would expect $160m to be returned, plus net cash and net receivables, yield value of just under $300m vs $370m market cap.

10 February 2015

COH HY. Back on track with sales growth in the teens. Nucleus 6 turns out to be successful despite initial misgivings. FCF roughly $160m to $200m pa, on $5b of market cap, implies CAGR of 15% to 20% per annum for 10 years. Pricey.

SGH- WIP is now $521m. Holders of SGH is well advised to read carefully on what is WIP and how SGH recognises revenue.

EAX update- sales up, NPAT static, declining margins.

BOL HY out. Operations squeezed out $12m in cash (boosted by $4m income tax refund), and sold $9m equipment versus $7m capex. Paid down debt by $14m. Squeezed working capital and reducing costs. Equity= $231m versus MC plus debt of $59 + $83= $162m.

11 February 2015

CSL HY out- 8% sales growth in constant currency. Gross and net margins maintained. Net FCF is US$1.3b, after deducting R & D of US$460m (annualised). So FCF pre R & D is nearly US$1.8b=AUD$2.3b. MC=AUD$39b, implying less than 10% CAGR for 10 years. SP dropped 8%, implying market expects double digit growth and was disappointed.

CPU HY out- Sales down, Costs up. Net debt of over $1.2b. FCF less than $300m annualised. MC=$6.3b.

BOL- Bewarder Stichting now up over 10% of the register.

TWD HY out- 73% increase in EPS pcp, interim dividend up. Qld still dominates. If NSW and VIC do only half as well as Qld, revenue will double, for very little capex spent.

12 February 2015

TLS results out- NAS division growing and revenue is $2b per annum.

13 February 2015

GBT- FCF HY is $10m. FCF run rate $20m with MC of $290m.

16 February 2015

SCD HY out. NPAT $300k, FCF $500k. Expenses all reduced. Total cash increased to $6.7m. Total revenue $6.2m, $3.1m for both product sales and service. Orders on hand=$3.6m, together with service revenues should ensure second half is not lower than first half, giving a NPAT and FCF runrate of $600k and $1m at a low point in the cycle. Margin of safety in initial thesis remains intact.

SEK HY- annualised $220m in FCF supporting $5.8b in MC, implying CAGR of just under 20% for 10 years. Not going to happen.

MGX HY out. $354m in cash but deduct $69m receivables and $44m provisions, balance is $240m which is roughly the MC. Extension Hill cash cost is roughly $50, realised average price was $61, so this mine is just barely cashflow positive. The only possible upside appears to the insurance claim.

FFI HY out. Flat results. OCF=$1.54m. Dividend reduced from 10c to 8 c ff.

18 February 2015

NEA HY out. Revenue is $11.4m, on target for runrate of $30m by Dec 2015. Expensed a big chunk of USA expansion, funded from strong cashflows. Cash is at near $22m, no debt. 36k named users up from 22k. Capture costs amortised over 5 years, very conservative because database has an indefinite perpetual value. NEA sold off on results- MC approaching $170m, meaning EV of $150m after backing out cash.

ISD HY out. FCF runrate of $28m to $30m supporting EV of $600m, implying FCF 10 year CAGR of 10%.

CRZ results out. FCF runrate $90m, supporting $2.4b in MC, implying FCF 10 year CAGR of 15%. Long term structural disruptive threat from self-driving cars.

SSM HY Out. Revenue up. NPAT $4m. Dividend declared 0.5 cents ff. Net debt $10m. Accrued revenue up from $71m to $80m. As expected, Fixed Comms and Mobile taking up where Energy & Water coming off. OCF disappointing due to $9m increase in working capital, showing up in accrued revenue. Looks like SSM throws off about $20m in cash per annum.

COO HY out. Revenue down slightly, with both divisions revenue down. Profit before tax remained steady due to cost control, and NPAT increased due to tax benefit. Cashflow is down. Cash at balance date is $12m, but would be less now after payment of dividend and employment termination payments to the CEO. OCF is $1.7m but payables have decreased by $1.8m, so normalised OCF is still well over $3m for the half.

ASW HY out. Steady despite soft conditions. Good yield, good management.

19 February 2015

SRV HY. Revenue up 10%, NPAT up 36%. OCF up to $29m. Normalised OCF is $27m. OCF per floor is $388k. Revenue per floor is just under $2m. ANZ section down, but Asia and EMEA up strongly. USA is slightly profitable but in red due to costs of new floors. Occupancy like for like is 80%. Cash up slightly to $103m. Dividend up 11 cents. ROE=14.7%, but if excess cash is backed out, we get ROE range in the high teens to twenties.

ONT HY. All metrics up. Rolling $6m cash pre-tax, annualised to $12m. MC $150m.

KKT HY out. The hard yakka continues.

IRI HY out. Massive headline results.

BOL Stichting Bewaarder up to 12% now.

20 February 2015

VOC HY out. OCF nearly $22m. Capex efficiency now 0.50. 14% utilisation on total network expanded by 33%. But dragged down by AMM's poor results.

AMM HY out. Poor, although telco division is still growing in low teens.

PME HY out. Revenue up, progress on track. $10m net cash left, but cashflow neutral before payment of dividends.

Yours One Legged

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